Spain lead at 16.6%.Argentina just behind at 12.4%.Watch Switzerland — easiest group in the tournament (avg opp ELO 1699).

Mexico open with a bang, red chaos

South Africa finished with nine men as Mexico got the tournament under way, while South Korea came from behind to beat Czechia.

Mexico kicked off the 2026 World Cup with a 2-0 win over South Africa, but the match was as chaotic as it was comfortable. Julian Quinones got things going after just nine minutes. South Africa then lost Sphephelo Sithole and Themba Zwane to red cards, though Mexico's Cesar Montes also walked. Mexico are now at 99% to advance. South Africa are hanging on at 14%. South Korea edged Czechia 2-1 in the other opener, coming from behind to do it. Oh Hyeon-gyu's goal on 80 minutes settled it. South Korea sit at 97% to go through. Czechia are still alive at 59%, so their campaign is far from over. Today brings four games. Switzerland are the model's strongest lean at 73%, going away against hosts Qatar. Canada at home to Bosnia-Herzegovina comes in at 69%, a solid home advantage. Brazil host Morocco at 22:00, with the model backing Brazil at 63%, a credible favourite but not a foregone conclusion. The most open game of the night is USA against Paraguay at 01:00, with the model favouring the hosts at just 55%.